Modernizing Transit in Monmouth County

Costs and Benefits

Capital costs

In the 1990s, Amtrak electrified 155 double-track route miles from New Haven to Boston for around $6.8 million per mile in 2022 dollars. The contractor substantially completed the project in summer 2000 about four years after beginning work. At this construction cost, which is quite high by global standards, completing electrification on the Coast Line would cost around $100 million. Since the North Jersey Coast Line already has a conflict-free connection to the Northeast Corridor and existing service to Penn Station, completion of wire to the line’s end allows straightforward consolidation of the shuttle trips into one-seat New York–Bay Head runs. We anticipate that NJ Transit’s existing rail fleet suffices for the service increase proposed herein. Most of the shuttle sets already use electro-diesel dual mode locomotives, and more of them have been ordered to replace aging diesel-only locomotives.

Recent high-platform projects, such as the recently completed Chelsea, MA, station, have cost around $25,000 per linear foot of platform. Seven full-time stations on the line currently lack high platforms; equipping all of these stations with two side platforms each long enough for a six-car set would likely cost around $200 million. We recommend closing Monmouth Park, which is a summer-only stop that lacks nearby trip generators.

This proposal deliberately assumes recent U.S. construction costs. Research has confirmed that the United States pays uniquely high prices for its transit infrastructure. In most other industrialized countries, the construction required for this proposal would cost $100 million or less. Investigation into the problem’s root causes has found that informed, empowered internal design staff and a culture that prioritizes speed and standardization play major roles in construction cost control. The state of New Jersey and the federal government should be actively seeking opportunities to imitate these practices so that transit funds reach as far as possible.

The MBTA’s Chelsea station demonstrates that constructing high platforms need not be cost prohibitive [*3]

Table 2: Estimated costs and ticket revenue of phased North Jersey Coast Line service improvements

Bus operating costs

We estimate the cost of our bus proposal using the current contract cost and estimating the current level of service hours from schedules. Using these sources, we calculate that our proposal would cost around $6.3 million more yearly. Widely accepted ridership modeling practices predict that added ticket revenue would offset much of this cost. This service level would likely require a few more buses at Transdev’s Neptune garage, which handles 20 today. We expect the garage to need minimal modification, but actual needs warrant further investigation. Pre-pandemic, moving one passenger one mile cost NJ Transit $0.58 on a commuter train versus $1.07 on a bus, so it is to the agency’s advantage to have buses complement the Coast Line rather than duplicate it.

We propose to reroute buses onto more direct routes where the train does not run. Once the whole Coast Line runs at least hourly all day, the entire 830 route and the 837 north of Asbury Park can be eliminated. In our proposal, the 837 would now run from Seaview Square via Sunset Avenue to Asbury Park station. The 831 would now run from the Monmouth Mall along NJ-36 and Broadway to Long Branch Station. The 832 would now start at Red Bank Station and continue down NJ-35 past Seaview Square along Neptune Boulevard to reach Jersey Shore Medical Center before using Corlies Avenue to reach Asbury Park. The 834 would use Linden Avenue to reach NJ-36 from Highlands and no longer detour into Leonardo. Moreover, it would terminate at Middletown instead of Red Bank station.

ETA’s plan would eliminate engine switching at Long Branch station [*4].

Rail operating costs

Our modeling estimates that year-round hourly diesel shuttles would cost $9.9 million per year and stimulate $1.3 million in additional ticket revenue for a total net cost of $8.6 million annually (Table 2). We assume that added diesel service would cost NJ Transit’s systemwide average unit cost of $20 per car mile. Our proposal would add 7 more weekday and 9 more weekend round trips of 30 miles each, times six cars. This method likely overestimates the net cost. Rail systems carry substantial fixed costs, which means unit costs decrease as service is added, and NJ Transit already runs hourly shuttle service most of the day on summer weekends.

With platforms and wire, we anticipate the annual operating cost of the proposed service level to be slightly over the total cost incurred today. We use the New York City Subway’s cost of $17 per car mile to approximate that of electric service between Long Branch and Bay Head. Since that system is fully electrified with fully level boarding and runs a reasonable complement of midday service with considerable increases during the morning and evening peaks, we believe this is a reasonable choice. On balance, electric trains save money over diesel ones since they are lighter, faster, and contain fewer moving parts to maintain, even after accounting for overhead wire maintenance.

Of note, the Chicago ‘L’ incurs a cost of around $10 per car mile, or $14 if scaled to New York wages. That system runs service 24/7 in a less peaked fashion than is seen in New York and also seems to perform system maintenance more efficiently. There is good reason to believe that gradual evolution of practices on New York’s commuter rail network to all-day electric regional rail would bring operating expenses closer to those of the L. Electric multiple units that do not have low-level boarding stairs cost substantially less to acquire, maintain, and staff than NJ Transit’s current equipment.

Continued diesel operation on the outer North Jersey Coast Line is highly suboptimal. Because the line has especially close stops, overhead electric propulsion unlocks large trip time cuts over diesel. Moreover, reliable implementation of a full New York-Bay Head one-seat ride with diesel past Long Branch would require reinstallation of a recently removed fueling facility at Bay Head. For similar reasons, we do not recommend battery trains, which generally ply secondary routes away from major cities, for the Coast Line. Battery trains—of which NJ Transit has none—cost more to acquire and accelerate more slowly than comparable overhead wire trains, which would lengthen trip times, decrease reliability, and force greater spacing between trains on the congested railroad near New York Penn Station. Moreover, without full overhead wire to Bay Head, crews would still have to perform and verify a mode changeover at Long Branch, adding to the station dwell time.